Europe Is Not Fighting the Iran War, but It Is Already Paying the Price
Europe isn't fighting in the US-Iran conflict, but faces soaring energy costs, shipping chaos, and NATO tensions as the Strait of Hormuz nearly shuts down.
The conflict between the United States and Iran is centered in the Middle East, but its consequences are spreading far beyond the region. European governments have generally refused to participate directly in American offensive operations. Still, Europe is being affected through higher energy prices, disrupted shipping, increased military tensions and growing divisions inside NATO.
The most immediate concern is the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most important maritime passages. Before the war, approximately 45 commercial vessels crossed the strait each day. Shipping activity has since collapsed. On August 3, tracking data recorded only six vessels passing through the waterway, compared with seven the previous day. Some ships may not have been counted because they were traveling with their identification systems turned off, but the figures still show how dramatically normal commerce has declined.
It is difficult to determine exactly how many of these ships are European-owned or traveling directly to European ports. Shipping companies frequently operate vessels registered in other countries, while oil and gas cargoes can be bought and resold before reaching their final destinations. The clearest available figures therefore measure total traffic through the strait rather than European traffic alone.
Europe Is Not Fighting the Iran War, but It Is Already Paying the Price. ––By Lars Boe with InsiderWire.
Europe receives a smaller share of its oil directly through Hormuz than many Asian countries. However, this does not protect European consumers from the consequences. Oil is traded on a global market. When supplies from the Gulf are reduced, European countries must compete with China, India, Japan and other importers for alternative shipments.
The effects can already be seen in European factories. A July survey found that manufacturers faced higher energy and material costs as the war continued and shipping through Hormuz nearly stopped. Germany’s manufacturing sector showed signs of improvement, but analysts warned that the recovery would be difficult to sustain without a resolution to the Middle East conflict.
Natural gas is another major concern. Europe has become increasingly dependent on liquefied natural gas as it reduces its reliance on Russian pipeline supplies. A prolonged disruption in Hormuz would increase competition between Europe and Asia for LNG shipments from outside the Gulf. The European Commission has warned that Europe’s greatest exposure would likely come through higher global LNG prices and the struggle to secure flexible cargoes.
Peter Arnold, EY’s chief economist in the United Kingdom, warned that continuing disruption would begin to test the resilience of the British economy. EY estimated that the United Kingdom could face renewed inflation and potentially an economic contraction if the strait remained closed into 2027. His assessment reflects the broader danger facing Europe. Even countries that import relatively little oil directly from the Gulf can experience higher fuel prices, transportation costs and consumer inflation.
Why Has NATO Article 5 Not Been Activated?
The deaths of American service members have raised an understandable question. If the United States is a NATO member, why has Article 5 not taken effect?
Article 5 states that an armed attack against one NATO ally will be treated as an attack against all. However, it does not cover every American soldier or military facility anywhere in the world.
Article 6 of the North Atlantic Treaty establishes geographical limits. The collective-defense commitment primarily applies to attacks against allied territory in Europe and North America, Turkey, certain islands, and forces or vessels operating in specified parts of the North Atlantic and Mediterranean. American bases in Kuwait, Jordan, Bahrain and most of the Persian Gulf are outside that traditional treaty area.
This means the death of American troops in the Gulf does not automatically activate Article 5. The United States would also need to formally bring the issue to NATO, and the alliance’s members would need to determine whether the attack qualified as a collective-defense matter.
NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte addressed the issue after an Iranian missile was intercepted near Turkey in March. In an interview, he said Article 5 was “not on the table” and emphasized that NATO itself was not directly involved in the war. His comments demonstrated the alliance’s effort to separate the defense of NATO territory from the wider American campaign against Iran.
Article 5 is also not an automatic declaration of war. Even when it is invoked, each NATO member decides what assistance it considers necessary. That assistance could include intelligence, air defense, logistics or political support rather than combat troops.
How Is Europe Supporting the United States?
European support has been limited and divided.
Bulgaria approved the temporary deployment of up to 8 American KC-135 aerial refueling aircraft and approximately 250 personnel at Bezmer Air Base. Bulgarian officials stressed that the country was not joining offensive operations and that the deployment would not include offensive weapons.
Other governments have been more restrictive. Spain prohibited American aircraft involved in attacks against Iran from using Spanish bases or airspace. Spanish Defense Minister Margarita Robles stated that Spain would authorize neither its military bases nor its airspace for actions connected to the war.
France and Italy have also rejected some American requests for support or access related to offensive operations. These decisions do not mean that all cooperation has stopped. European governments continue to share intelligence, track missiles, protect NATO airspace and support existing American operations through logistics and established military infrastructure. NATO personnel also helped detect, track and intercept an Iranian missile approaching allied territory.
However, there is no unified NATO combat mission against Iran. European fighter aircraft are not broadly participating in American strikes, and most European governments are trying to avoid becoming direct parties to the war.
Europe is therefore caught between two realities. Its leaders want to preserve their alliance with the United States and protect international shipping, but they also fear being pulled into an expanding conflict that they did not initiate and cannot easily control.
Europe may not be launching the missiles, but its industries, consumers and governments are already paying part of the cost.
